AI Image Thumbnail Made Using Grok AI

The Tariffs war continues and it seems to be the only thing a lot of people point their fingers to as the reason for Bitcoin's price struggling to go up.

That's a very easy explanation that I wouldn't discount anyways but if you do a deeper research, you would realize that the cracks leading to this point for Bitcoin were there before tariffs even entered the conversation.

One thing I've learned over the years is that people just love a simple cause and effect narrative and I am guilty of that too but you see, the markets just don't work like that.

The charts show that Bitcoin has already failed to hold above the $100,000 mark multiple times before Donald Trump made the first tarrifs announcement.

In the month of November 2024, Bitcoin's price was hovering around the $100K mark. There were fluctuations in price and it struggled but remained close to that threshold.

In the month of December 2024, the price of Bitcoin peaked at around $108,268 and this happened on the 17th of December

Then throughout the whole of January 2025, Bitcoin's price was dangling between $92K to $98K. It closed at $98,314 and that happened on the 5th of January, 2025.

From that time to this moment it's been struggling to hit $100,000 mark. It attempted to do so last month (that is March) with the price moving between $90K to $100K but had a lot of resistance and plummeted down to $80K region.

At the time of writing this blog, it's sitting at $83,643.26

One thing you should consider is that spot Bitcoin ETFs were pulling in billions even as the trade war escalated. If tariffs were the main villain, why were institutions still pouring money into BTC?

Apparently, the investors weren’t scared off.

gif source

I believe the real problem was expectation of traders, investors and crypto enthusiasts.

Some traders truly believed in the idea of a strategic national Bitcoin stockpile. When Trump’s executive order landed in March, it wasn’t what they had imagined. The crypto and stock market doesn’t run on dreams and the disappointment hit almost everybody really hard.

Inflation played a role in this too. Back in 2022 when inflation was burning through people's wallets, Bitcoin looked like a safe haven for a lot and they used that as a powerful hedge against inflation.

But now that we've got inflation relatively under control, investors are eyeing real estate and stocks instead. Cheap money benefits those markets more than Bitcoin. It’s just the way reality works.

Something I barely see people blame is the job market. Do you know that weak employment numbers means people are not throwing extra cash into risk assets that much?

The Treasury yields dropping down to six month lows only proves to me and the world that investors want safety and not volatility. When a government backed bonds look more attractive than Bitcoin you should know sentiment has greatly shifted.

Don't get me wrong, the Tariffs trade war is not irrelevant, but it isn't the full story.

gif source

Bitcoin’s price struggles come from unrealistic expectations, a changing macroeconomic landscape and sadly, a market that isn’t as hungry for risk as it once was. Blaming tariffs alone misses the bigger picture.

So for the price to make a big jump back, a lot of these variables have to do well in favor of Bitcoin. Ending Tariffs might not show the results people are expecting. Multiple things have to work well.

Invest wisely in crypto, and if you don't fully understand how something works, don't invest into the thing just yet, invest into knowledge of the thing first. Thanks for reading.

In my next article I'll be addressing something pretty interesting, it turns out thanks to Redditposh, my blogs get engagement not just on Hive but on Reddit as well. I'll be reviewing the comments and the replies I gave to those who commented. Stay tuned guys.

Posted Using INLEO